If you planted a garden in the spring, you wouldn’t wait until the fall to see if you had any ripe vegetables. And yet the equivalent occurs all too often when analysts don’t make the effort to regularly review their recommendations. When I was an analyst, one of my favorite buy-side clients was known for…
If you survey a room of 100 people and ask them to self-evaluate their professional skills, the vast majority will say they are “above average.” This unworkable math has been studied by psychologists who find the human mind is hard-wired to overestimate our abilities, possibly as a survival technique dating back to our caveman days. Unfortunately, too many equity…
You can give 10 carpenters average quality hammers, saws and miter boxes and they’ll produce a wide array of finished work. If you give them all higher quality tools, you’re likely to get some better finished products, but from only those who are masters at using the tools. With this consideration as a backdrop, for the past…
Have you seen one of the obstacle course TV shows like Ninja Warrior or Spartan Ultimate Team Challenge (or even Wipeout)? Do you think the winners have a strategy before they start the course? You bet they do. Now ask yourself, do equity research analysts approach potential information sources with a clear strategy for getting…
Let’s say a co-worker wants you to go out with the team after work but you don’t find it appealing and so you mention you’re not feeling well. Later that evening you run into them at a bar. How would you feel in the moment when your “little white lie” is discovered? I suspect, the…
If you were playing blackjack and never looked at the dealer’s face-up card, you’d be missing a great opportunity to increase your odds of winning. Unfortunately, too many analysts are doing the equivalent when they fail to assess and influence the market’s view. When equity research analysts have conducted proprietary research and arrived at an out-of-consensus…
According to studies, 50%-74% of the population consists of extroverts and yet when I ask “who is an extrovert” among a room filled with equity research analysts, the response I get is 5%-20% (I’ve done this informal survey at least 30 times over the past 3 years). From my perspective, we self-selected to get into…
Psychologists have discovered in situations when the “Do Not Walk” sign is illuminated, people are more likely to cross the road if the person ahead of them starts to walk, often without looking to see if it’s safe. Soon after hearing about this study I was in Midtown Manhattan, late for a meeting, jogging across streets…
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