According to studies, 50%-74% of the population consists of extroverts and yet when I ask “who is an extrovert” among a room filled with equity research analysts, the response I get is 5%-20% (I’ve done this informal survey at least 30 times over the past 3 years). From my perspective, we self-selected to get into…
Did you ever get a class grade or test score below your expectations? It happened to me when I received my CFA level 3 results, which politely told me I failed. My initial reaction was, “This can’t be right!” In fact, that was my belief for at least two months, until I received a “fail analysis”…
As a reminder, this post is Part 2 of my discussion highlighting the sources that cause us to derive inaccurate forecasts. In my first post, I highlighted all the ways we can be misled by company management, which is usually the fault of the analyst because, after all, our investors pay us to do more…
Back in business school, it was easy to forecast a company’s prospects. Simply plug the numbers from the case into Excel and voilà, out pops a forecast accurate enough to please the professor. Wow, I’m smart! It was only after arriving on Wall Street and getting my teeth kicked in a few times did I…
Would you offer to cook someone rack of lamb if you had no lamb? How about offering to prepare chicken Kiev but you have no chicken? Presuming most everyone would note such an essential missing ingredient, I then ask: why are so many stock calls missing a unique insight? I have reviewed hundreds of stock…
According to Reuters, one of its sister companies, Lipper, finds that roughly 85% of active large-cap stock funds are lagging their benchmarks year-to-date through late November. Investors are voting with their feet as shown by the $206 billion of inflows into ETFs through the first 10 months of 2014 vs. only $36 billion for the…
In Part 1 & Part 2 of this series, I asked if you have trouble finding time to develop killer insights for stock picking. To solve this dilemma, I provided a relatively simple concept that I’ve taught hundreds of highly-successful buy-side and sell-side equity research analysts, specifically to identify and monitor a stock’s critical factors….
In Part 1 of this 3-part series, I asked if you find your days jammed with meetings and calls and yet no killer insights. To solve this dilemma, I introduced a relatively simple concept that I’ve taught hundreds of highly-successful buy-side and sell-side equity research analysts, specifically to identify and monitor a stock’s critical factors….
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