If you planted a garden in the spring, you wouldn’t wait until the fall to see if you had any ripe vegetables. And yet the equivalent occurs all too often when analysts don’t make the effort to regularly review their recommendations. When I was an analyst, one of my favorite buy-side clients was known for…
If you were playing blackjack and never looked at the dealer’s face-up card, you’d be missing a great opportunity to increase your odds of winning. Unfortunately, too many analysts are doing the equivalent when they fail to assess and influence the market’s view. When equity research analysts have conducted proprietary research and arrived at an out-of-consensus…
According to studies, 50%-74% of the population consists of extroverts and yet when I ask “who is an extrovert” among a room filled with equity research analysts, the response I get is 5%-20% (I’ve done this informal survey at least 30 times over the past 3 years). From my perspective, we self-selected to get into…
Psychologists have discovered in situations when the “Do Not Walk” sign is illuminated, people are more likely to cross the road if the person ahead of them starts to walk, often without looking to see if it’s safe. Soon after hearing about this study I was in Midtown Manhattan, late for a meeting, jogging across streets…
If you’re an equity research analyst, you probably do a fair amount of flying. How would you feel if you were at the airport and overheard the pilot telling the gate agent, “We’re running late and so I’m not going to go through my standard safety checklist.”? I would probably take another flight, not so…
If you’ve had the opportunity to visit a casino, what’s your reaction when walking through the impressive, color-filled lobby while hearing the clanging of the slots? Does your mind immediately go more to “this is going to be fun” or “how am I going to beat this system?” If it’s the latter, you might have steps…
Did you ever get a class grade or test score below your expectations? It happened to me when I received my CFA level 3 results, which politely told me I failed. My initial reaction was, “This can’t be right!” In fact, that was my belief for at least two months, until I received a “fail analysis”…
It’s January and the analyst is forecasting a $75 stock to be at $100 by year end, based on the company’s “visionary management team” and “innovative products.” Over the course of the year, the analyst writes 7 research reports about the stock, updates his model 4 times and makes 9 presentations. Now it’s December and…
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