As a reminder, this post is Part 2 of my discussion highlighting the sources that cause us to derive inaccurate forecasts. In my first post, I highlighted all the ways we can be misled by company management, which is usually the fault of the analyst because, after all, our investors pay us to do more…
Back in business school, it was easy to forecast a company’s prospects. Simply plug the numbers from the case into Excel and voilà, out pops a forecast accurate enough to please the professor. Wow, I’m smart! It was only after arriving on Wall Street and getting my teeth kicked in a few times did I…
This 3-part post is all about following best practices for selecting the optimal valuation method…namely the one that’s going to derive a price target more accurate than consensus. As noted in Part 2 of this 3-part series, there are limitations to every valuation method, but some are better than others. For years I had been…
In my prior post I discussed the importance of identifying the optimal valuation method, which includes researching the valuation method used by most other equity analysts who cover the sector and stock being researched. In this entry, I delve into the pros and cons of the most popular valuation methods. To ensure I wasn’t missing…
In a prior post I noted all stock picking best practices (or “tips”) can be put into one of the four elements of our TIER™ framework (see image below). If you’re asking “why should I care?”, I’d reply that the best stock pickers have a consistent philosophy and methodology for picking stocks. If you already…
If I asked, “What are the steps to making a delicious lasagna?” or “What’s required to hit a golf ball straight down the fairway?” you might know the answers already, but if you didn’t, you’d definitely know where to find someone who does. What would you say if I asked, “What are the steps to…
Oh no… you’re the featured speaker at your department’s stock selection meeting because it’s becoming clear to everyone your highest profile stock call isn’t going to hit your price target. What went wrong? Bad valuation? Bad forecast? Or bad luck? If it was bad valuation, this post will help reduce (or potentially even eliminate) this scenario…
Imagine picking up your car after it’s been supposedly repaired and discovering it’s still not fixed. Then, after a second trip to the shop the problem is still not resolved. What if this issue was an industry-wide phenomena? How would you feel about auto mechanics? According to the most recent SPIVA report , 60% of large-cap managers…
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