During the 2004 Olympics, rifle shooter Matt Emmons was one shot away from the gold medal. For his next shot he hit the target dead center, but failed to win the medal… Why? Because he aimed at a competitor’s target, known in the sport as a crossfire. I applaud when equity research analysts take the…
Did you ever get a class grade or test score below your expectations? It happened to me when I received my CFA level 3 results, which politely told me I failed. My initial reaction was, “This can’t be right!” In fact, that was my belief for at least two months, until I received a “fail analysis”…
At the end of a typical work day, do you feel as though you achieved most of what you set out to do that morning? Are you regularly being acknowledged, or even rewarded, for doing a great job? If you answered “yes” to these questions, read no further. But if you’re like the majority of…
It’s January and the analyst is forecasting a $75 stock to be at $100 by year end, based on the company’s “visionary management team” and “innovative products.” Over the course of the year, the analyst writes 7 research reports about the stock, updates his model 4 times and makes 9 presentations. Now it’s December and…
When I was a kid, we put together a seasonal pool each summer in our backyard, and every fall came the undesirable process of taking it down (more of a drain on our emotions than of the pool). Draining the pool required siphoning out the water with a garden hose, but in my neighborhood back…
Those of us with finance backgrounds usually lack a key skill found in those with marketing backgrounds. We tend to think “if we build it they will come” in terms of expecting others to seek out our research because we spent time building a great financial model, conducting a thorough valuation analysis and writing up…
This post’s title purposely has some resemblance to the title of Dale Carnegie’s famous book, How to Win Friends and Influence People, which has sold 15 million copies since being written in 1936. If you’re like me, you might ask why does a book covering such a basic concept sell so well? Based on my…
As a reminder, this post is Part 2 of my discussion highlighting the sources that cause us to derive inaccurate forecasts. In my first post, I highlighted all the ways we can be misled by company management, which is usually the fault of the analyst because, after all, our investors pay us to do more…
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